Important Educational Disclaimer
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, or investment advice. Retirement planning is highly individual and depends on income, savings rate, asset allocation, expected longevity, healthcare cost projections, and many other factors. Rates and rules current as of May 20, 2026. The Savvy Investor Guide does not provide regulated advice in the United States or the United Kingdom. Before making retirement planning decisions, consult a qualified registered investment adviser, certified financial planner, or other professional.
The Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) published its 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey on April 22, 2026, and the headline number tells a clean story: 64% of Americans feel confident they have enough to live comfortably in retirement, the lowest reading since 2017. That is down from 65% in 2025 and from a 73% peak in 2023. The decline is small in any single year but persistent across three consecutive years. The picture beneath the headline is rougher: only 3 in 5 workers can handle an emergency expense, 65% say household debt is a problem, and 39% of workers expect to retire at 70 or never. The Pensions Commission in the UK published a parallel undersaving warning the day before; the two pictures are different in detail but pointing in the same direction.
In short
- EBRI 2026 RCS finds 64% of Americans confident they have enough to live comfortably in retirement, down from 65% in 2025 and from the 73% peak in 2023. Lowest reading since 2017.
- Emergency-expense capacity: fewer than 3 in 5 workers (around 58%) say they could handle an unexpected $1,000 expense, down from 64% the year before.
- Debt is the dominant household concern: 65% of households say debt is a problem; half carry credit card debt; 1 in 3 has $25,000+ in non-mortgage debt.
- The retire-at-70 gap: 39% of current workers expect to retire at age 70 or never. Only 10% of actual retirees did so. The expectation-vs-reality gap is the single most striking finding in the survey.
- Plan ownership matters more than savings rate: Fidelity’s complementary 2026 survey found that 81% of retirees with a written retirement plan say their savings will last a lifetime, vs 45% of retirees without one. The presence of a plan more than doubles retirement confidence; it correlates more strongly than dollar amount saved.
- Top concerns named in the survey: Social Security solvency, Medicare and healthcare costs, persistent inflation, and the long-term cost of living.
- The cross-Atlantic context: the UK Pensions Commission’s May 19 interim report found 15 million Britons undersaving; the government has ruled out raising auto-enrolment contribution rates this Parliament. The US and UK are both losing the retirement-savings argument at the headline level, with different underlying mechanics.
What EBRI actually measures
The Retirement Confidence Survey is the longest-running annual survey of US retirement preparedness, conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute since 1990. The 2026 edition surveyed roughly 2,500 Americans (workers and retirees) between January and February 2026. The survey covers retirement confidence levels, savings behaviour, debt, healthcare cost expectations, Social Security and Medicare attitudes, and the gap between worker expectations and retiree experience.
EBRI’s methodology is well-established. The headline confidence number is comparable across years; the multi-year trend chart is the most useful single output of the survey for tracking US retirement readiness over time. The 2026 reading of 64% confident continues a three-year decline from the 73% peak in 2023.
The findings that matter most
Confidence is falling, slowly but consistently
The 64% confident reading is one percentage point below 2025 and nine percentage points below 2023. A nine-point fall over three years is not a crash, but it is the most sustained decline in confidence since the survey’s early-2000s low. The drivers EBRI identifies are persistent inflation since 2021-22, concerns about Social Security and Medicare solvency, and ongoing pressure from household debt.
The decline is broadly distributed across age cohorts. EBRI breaks out workers (62% confident) and retirees (78% confident) separately. Workers are now significantly less confident than retirees, a gap that has widened over the past five years. Retirees who have actually made the transition typically discover that their actual expenses fit within their actual income; workers anticipating the transition feel more exposed.
The emergency-expense problem
One of the most striking findings is the share of workers who say they could not handle a $1,000 emergency expense without going into debt or skipping bills. The 2026 number is around 42%, up from 36% in 2025. Even among households with retirement accounts, a meaningful share are operating without a basic cash buffer.
The emergency-expense question is a leading indicator. A household that cannot absorb a routine emergency without debt is unlikely to be able to absorb a sustained period of retirement underfunding. The cash-buffer gap is, in EBRI’s framing, the first sign of broader retirement risk.
The debt picture
65% of US households report that debt is a problem. Half carry revolving credit card debt; 1 in 3 carries $25,000 or more in non-mortgage debt. The non-mortgage figure includes auto loans, student loans, and personal credit lines. Average interest rates on credit card balances remain above 22% APR; the carrying cost of revolving debt for a typical household is now several thousand dollars a year.
For retirement planning, the debt picture matters because every dollar servicing high-interest debt is a dollar not contributing to a 401(k), an IRA, an HSA, or an emergency fund. The mathematics of debt at 22% APR vs an expected retirement portfolio return of 7-8% nominal is unambiguous in favour of debt reduction first. EBRI’s framing aligns with that: the debt problem is the largest single drag on retirement saving for the median US household.
The retire-at-70 gap is the headline finding
The single most quotable EBRI 2026 statistic is the gap between worker expectations and retiree reality on retirement age. 39% of current workers expect to retire at age 70 or never. The corresponding figure for actual retirees who actually retired at 70 or later is approximately 10%.
The expectation-vs-reality gap reflects a specific behavioural pattern. Workers facing inadequate savings tell themselves they will solve the gap by working longer. Retirees, facing health issues, layoffs, family caregiving demands, or simply the reality of declining work capacity in their late 60s, retire earlier than they planned. The Employee Benefit Research Institute has documented this gap for two decades; it has not narrowed.
The practical implication is that “I’ll just work to 70” is not a plan. It is a hope that fails for 75% of the workers who hold it. For retirement planning purposes, the actual expected retirement age in any household-level projection should be the earlier of (a) the worker’s planned retirement age, and (b) the worker’s actual retirement age forecast based on industry, health, and family circumstances. For most workers, that means planning to be retired by 63-65, not 70.
The Fidelity overlay: plan ownership is the lever
Alongside the EBRI survey, Fidelity Investments published a complementary 2026 study with a striking single finding: among retirees with a written retirement plan, 81% say their savings will last a lifetime. Among retirees without a written plan, 45% say so. The presence of a plan more than doubles retirement confidence among people in the same income and savings band.
The Fidelity finding is not about how much you have saved. It is about whether you have done the work of thinking through your specific retirement income and expense picture. A written plan typically includes: an estimated retirement age, an estimated annual spending budget, a Social Security claiming strategy, a tax-efficient withdrawal sequence, an asset allocation appropriate to the time horizon, and a contingency for healthcare and long-term care costs.
Building a written plan costs time, not money. The free planning tools at Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab, and the National Endowment for Financial Education provide reasonable starting points. A one-hour conversation with a certified financial planner ($200-$500 for a fee-only consultation) typically produces a usable plan for a moderate-complexity household. The Fidelity number suggests the return on that investment is substantial.
Why confidence keeps falling
EBRI identifies four drivers of the declining confidence trend.
Social Security solvency. The 2025 SSA Trustees Report projected the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund would be depleted by 2033, at which point scheduled benefits would be cut to approximately 77% of full amounts absent congressional action. The 2026 update has pulled the depletion forward to 2032 in part due to OBBBA payroll-tax provisions affecting senior workers. For workers in their 30s, 40s, and early 50s, the Social Security picture in retirement is materially more uncertain than it was a decade ago.
Medicare and healthcare costs. Healthcare cost inflation has run materially above general CPI for over a decade. Medicare Part B premiums have risen faster than COLA increases in most recent years, eroding the real value of Social Security for retirees. Long-term care costs, which Medicare does not cover, average $54,000 to $100,000 per year for nursing home care depending on state. Households without long-term care insurance or substantial dedicated savings face the prospect of asset depletion in late retirement.
Persistent inflation since 2021. Cumulative price increases of roughly 22-24% over the past four years have eroded the real value of accumulated retirement savings. A $1 million portfolio that would have funded a comfortable retirement in 2020 funds a materially less comfortable retirement in 2026 unless investment returns have outpaced inflation by a wide margin. The April 2026 US CPI print of 3.8% confirms that inflation is not yet returning to the 2% target.
Housing and shelter costs. Shelter inflation in particular has stayed sticky. Renters approaching retirement face structurally higher housing costs than the previous generation. Homeowners with paid-off mortgages have a partial inflation hedge through home equity, but the share of US households who own outright at retirement has declined since 2010.
The UK cross-reference: same direction, different mechanics
The UK published its own undersaving warning the day before the EBRI release. The Pensions Commission’s May 19 interim report found 15 million Britons currently undersaving for retirement, with 45% of working-age adults saving nothing at all. The UK government has explicitly ruled out raising auto-enrolment contribution rates this Parliament, closing off the most widely anticipated near-term policy lever.
The structural difference matters. UK public sector workers in the NHS, Teachers’, LGPS, and Civil Service pension schemes are in defined benefit arrangements that produce a guaranteed retirement income regardless of investment market performance. The UK DC undersaving problem is concentrated in the private sector and the self-employed. The US picture has no equivalent broad public-sector DB safety net; even teachers, nurses, and civil servants in many US states are now in DC arrangements or hybrid plans with significant individual contribution risk.
For SIG readers planning across both jurisdictions, the implication is that the UK story is about closing a gap for a specific subset; the US story is about closing a gap for the median household. Both are real; the policy paths are different.
What to do about the EBRI numbers
Three responses are within an individual reader’s control regardless of policy.
1. Build the plan, not just the savings
The Fidelity finding that plan ownership more than doubles retirement confidence suggests the highest-leverage step for most households is not increasing the savings rate (though that helps too) but writing down a coherent retirement income and expense projection. A useful plan covers: target retirement age (use 65, not 70, in your default projection); estimated annual retirement spending in today’s dollars; expected Social Security benefit at the claiming age you plan; the tax bracket you expect to be in during retirement; a withdrawal sequence (taxable accounts, then tax-deferred, then Roth, is the conventional default); a contingency for long-term care.
The plan does not need to be sophisticated. A one-page document with the key numbers is more useful than a 40-tab spreadsheet that nobody updates. Review and update annually.
2. Build the emergency fund before optimising retirement contributions
For the 42% of households who cannot handle a $1,000 emergency, the highest-priority financial step is building 3-6 months of expenses in a high-yield savings account or short-term Treasury bills. That cash buffer prevents the cycle of small emergencies producing high-interest debt, which in turn prevents retirement saving from compounding. A 401(k) employer match should still be captured (free money is free money), but beyond the match, emergency-fund building takes priority over additional retirement contributions until the cash buffer is in place.
3. Use the SECURE 2.0 catch-up provisions if you qualify
For workers age 50+, the 2026 standard catch-up contribution to a 401(k) is $8,000. For workers age 60-63, the SECURE 2.0 enhanced catch-up is $11,250. These provisions exist precisely to give late-career workers extra contribution room when they recognise they are behind. Note the SECURE 2.0 Roth catch-up requirement for $150k+ earners (see our updated 401(k) Optimization Playbook).
The Saver’s Match launching January 1, 2027 will add a federal 50% match on the first $2,000 of annual contributions for eligible lower-to-middle-income workers (income caps approximately $35,500 single / $71,000 married). For workers in those bands, the Saver’s Match is among the highest-return retirement opportunities available.
FAQ
How worried should I be about Social Security depletion in 2032?
For workers currently at retirement age or already drawing benefits, the depletion timeline is unlikely to affect you materially; political pressure to maintain benefits for current and near-term retirees is strong and historically effective. For workers in their 30s, 40s, and early 50s, the picture is more uncertain. The current legal position is that absent congressional action, benefits would be reduced to approximately 77% of scheduled amounts in 2033 (or to 72% in some projections). Most retirement planning frameworks now build in either a 75-80% Social Security assumption for younger workers or a means-test contingency, neither of which existed in standard planning ten years ago. Plan for the haircut; if it does not materialise, that is upside.
Why is the retire-at-70 expectation so unreliable?
The data has been consistent for two decades: workers expect to retire later than they actually do, by a meaningful margin. The drivers documented by EBRI and the GAO include health issues (the leading cause), employer-initiated separations (layoffs, restructures), family caregiving demands (often a spouse’s or parent’s health), and changes in industry demand for older workers. For an individual, the right planning posture is to treat “I’ll work until 70” as best-case rather than central-case, and to ensure the household can absorb retirement at 63 if circumstances force it.
Should I work with a financial planner if I am not sure I can afford it?
A one-time fee-only consultation (typically $200-$500) with a certified financial planner produces a written plan that, per Fidelity’s data, materially improves retirement outcomes. The cost is roughly equivalent to one or two months of streaming service subscriptions; the value is across a 30-year retirement horizon. NAPFA (the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors) maintains a directory of fee-only planners. XYPN (XY Planning Network) specialises in younger and middle-income clients. Both networks include advisers offering one-time and project-based engagements at moderate cost.
What if I am 50+ and feel behind?
The standard retirement catch-up contribution is $8,000 to a 401(k) in 2026 (or $11,250 for ages 60-63 under the SECURE 2.0 enhanced catch-up). IRA catch-up is $1,000. HSA catch-up is $1,000 from age 55+. A household using all available catch-up provisions can move materially toward closing a gap, particularly in the high-leverage 55-65 window when income often peaks and family expenses (children, mortgage payoff) are declining. Combined with a written plan and a defensible retirement age assumption, late-career catch-up can produce meaningfully better outcomes than the prevailing-confidence numbers suggest.
Where do I find the EBRI report itself?
The EBRI press release with the headline findings is at ebri.org. The full 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey report and the supplementary data tables are available to EBRI members. The press release covers the headline numbers, including all of those quoted in this article.
The Savvy Investor’s take
The 2026 EBRI Retirement Confidence Survey numbers are not a crisis on their own. A one-point year-on-year decline in a headline confidence number is small. The underlying findings, particularly the retire-at-70 gap and the emergency-expense fragility, point to a more structural picture: a meaningful share of US households are operating without the cash buffer or planning discipline that converts a savings number into a confident retirement.
The single most actionable finding is the Fidelity overlay. Plan ownership more than doubles retirement confidence at any given savings level. For most readers who feel uncertain about their retirement readiness, the highest-leverage step is not necessarily contributing more (though that often helps too). It is writing down a coherent one-page retirement plan: target retirement age (use 65, not 70), expected annual spending in today’s dollars, Social Security claiming strategy, withdrawal sequence, long-term care contingency. Review annually. That work costs a few hours and a possibly small consultation fee; the data says it more than doubles the probability of feeling that the savings will last.
The cross-Atlantic context is interesting. The US RCS and the UK Pensions Commission both published in the same week, both finding sustained undersaving, both with policy levers either ruled out or pending. For workers in either country, the structural answer is the same: own the plan, build the buffer, capture the catch-up contributions if you qualify, and treat the headline confidence numbers as a temperature reading rather than as a forecast of your specific picture. The headline says nothing about whether your particular plan will work. The plan does.
Information, not advice. This article describes the Employee Benefit Research Institute’s 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey published April 22, 2026, and related context. It is not personal financial advice. Savvy Investor Guide is not authorized or regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Conduct Authority. Retirement planning is highly individual; for personal advice, consult a qualified registered investment adviser, certified financial planner, or other professional in your jurisdiction.
Key sources
- EBRI: 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey press release
- EBRI: 2026 RCS press release PDF
- Marketplace: Americans are losing confidence in retirement savings
- Savvy Investor Guide: 401(k) Optimization Playbook 2026 (updated May 20 with SECURE 2.0 Roth catch-up + Saver’s Match preview)
- Savvy Investor Guide: HSA Investment Strategy (updated May 20 with OBBBA expansion)
- Savvy Investor Guide: Same month, opposite direction: UK CPI 2.8% vs US CPI 3.8%
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